The problem with the discussion of renting vs owning is that they’re not equal outcomes, or equal cost. The more I think about protocol owned liquidity (POL), the less it makes sense. I actually used to be a big proponent but the whole concept falls apart under scrutiny. It really is the directly opposite thing to basic economic fundamentals. Excuse my wall of text but I think this is really important and I think we’re making an absolutely enormous mistake by pursuing POL - a severe enough mistake that it will kill the protocol in the medium term if pursued.
Trading is just willing buyers and sellers exchanging at prices set by the market. Liquidity is a by product of the market determining that it is profitable to take a no-drift position (ty for pointing this out @mnm) to capitalize on trading volume. If liquidity is not there, the market is telling you that it’s not a good idea. When you try to force it by spending money on creating liquidity, sure, you’ll create the liquidity, and you will lose money. And sure, markets aren’t perfect, and people make money capitalizing on things the market misses all the time, but that’s called trading, or investing, or active management of a fund, and none of the above is what we do, and none of the above is what POL is.
Just to make it pretty clear what an exchange like ShadeSwap is, it’s like the NYSE, it’s not like an investment bank. Stock exchanges do not own liquidity, market makers do, hence the name. In the real world, exchanges cannot own liquidity. They would become insolvent in seconds. The daily volume of the US stock market is like $100b-$200b, and in order to support that kind of volume with an AMM we would need tens of trillions to hundreds of trillions to POL. Even with a perfectly efficient CLOB with a perfect market maker who is never wrong you would still need trillions of dollars to enable trading of sufficient depth to create that amount of volume. It’s not only completely unreasonable, it’s impossible. You cannot run an exchange that owns its own liquidity. The way you create liquidity on an exchange is to attract market makers, buyers, and sellers, to use the exchange. It’s in the name of the product. Exchange. It’s not “the protocol providing everyone exit liquidity.” It’s an exchange between willing buyers and sellers. The answer to liquidity on an exchange is attracting willing buyers and sellers.
But okay, maybe crypto is different, so let’s think about it some more.
What we’re talking about here is spending protocol funds to purchase LP tokens that we will that sit on. We’re not talking about active management of a fund, we’re talking about just buying LP. What this means is the protocol is going to take money, and say “i will buy any amount of these tokens in this pool at whatever the spot price is”. Let me extend that to your personal funds.
I want to be able to trade my SHD, but there isn’t enough liquidity to offload a position of my size. I would like all the proponents of protocol owned liquidity to take money from their checking accounts, their retirement accounts, their brokerages, college funds, whatever, and buy all of my SHD at current spot price, at any time I choose to sell. Whatever the spot price is. And not just a little bit, I’m talking like 50% of your net worth. How many of you would do it?
Why do we expect the protocol to do the same thing? To dip into its pool of funds that could be spent on any number of other things, such as:
- Development grants for new products
- Development grants to extend runway of teams maintaining existing products
- Research funds to create novel DeFi products
- Marketing funds to attract new users of existing demographics
- Business development funds to attract entirely new demographics (e.g. institutions, who have lots of money, and the resources to market make, perhaps?)
- Lower risk, higher yield, zero-delta positions in stablecoin yield farms
When you choose to spend money on POL, that means you are looking at that list (non-exhaustive, of course!) and saying “all of those things are less important than allowing me to sell more of my token at a better price”.
I’ve said this a few times but I want to make it super, super clear, and i’ll bold the whole thing since this post is so long and I’m sure there’s a lot of skimming, so hopefully people stop and read and internalize this point:
One million dollars of liquidity only creates an additional $2000 of 1% depth.
We have a lot less money than you guys think. Let me make it concrete.
As of writing this post, if I sold 10,000 SHD, I would get just around $50k.
If we multiplied on chain liquidity by 10x, which would be about $15m of additional liquidity, my trade would only improve from $50k to $80k. This, obviously, is impossible, because if we sold enough bonds to get $15m of additional liquidity at current prices, the price of SHD would probably be around $1, but let’s be conservative and say it would drop it to $3, so that $15m of liquidity is now actually only $4.5m, which means my $50k trade would instead be around $70k. Just to be clear if we sold enough bonds at current spot price to create $15m of liquidity (e.g., sell $7.5m of shd), that would be around 750k SHD, which would more than triple current circulating supply I believe. Again, obviously, nobody would buy bonds at that price, that kind of supply shock will obliterate the market, and all of the SHD we’re all currently holding. And the reality is even worse!! The bonds are sold at a discount! The protocol gets even less money than I’ve calculated here from selling bonds, so the nearly-zero value of POL is even smaller!
This is such a huge deal I’m gonna repeat myself.
When you are in favor of using bonds for POL, you are saying that you would rather the protocol spend quite literally all of its purchasing power on creating slightly better prices, instead of using the money to fund the next few years of development and marketing. That is the trade off. They’re mutually exclusive. Pick one: A baby whale gets another $20k or $30k when they dump, or the protocol can fund development and marketing for another couple years.
Hopefully that sufficiently establishes that us spending money on owning liquidity is a bad idea. If not, I would love to hear dissenting opinions, but I’d like them to be mathematical. I’d like someone to show me that the millions of dollars that it would require to own an amount of POL that actually matters has a greater ROIC than doing literally anything else.
So maybe we work around that assumption and say instead, we will just spend less money on protocol owned liquidity. We want to enable trading of our token, right? And renting liquidity is expensive, right? So maybe we bootstrap it with protocol funds using bonds. We don’t need to spend ludicrous amounts of money, right? Just a little bit, get the trading going. The thing is, as the math above shows, the amount of liquidity we can actually create is very small because diminishing returns set in really quickly. The truth is if you assume the price of SHD doesn’t tank when you sell discounted bonds (unreasonable, but makes for a more conservative estimate), and we increase on chain liquidity by around 20% (which would translate to around $300k of liquidity, which would increase circ supply by roughly 12%), that 10,000 SHD sale example I gave above? It improves from $50k to $54k. It’s basically inconsequential, and it cost us a ton of money.
The ROIC of POL is so abjectly terrible that spending that money on almost anything else you could imagine that isn’t outright burning it would be a better decision.
Last point, there are obviously a couple others aspects to POL.
- It’s an asset that we own, which means it’s an asset that we can liquidate if we want to
- It generate trading fees, which generates protocol revenue.
These are easy to dismiss.
- Just don’t buy it in the first place. Because of the inflation we will experience if we actually create a significant amount of POL, we’re going to experience so much IL that we’re going to lose an enormous amount of money.
- If this even remotely mattered we wouldn’t be having this discussion because the fees would be the incentive for the market to provide the liquidity instead of us. Obviously everyone knows the yield from LPing without emissions is tiny, and it’s going to be basically $0 until we hit volumes akin to Ethereum, in which case the protocol will already be making plenty of money by having a portfolio of high quality defi primitives whose revenue is perfectly correlated with market participation.
So again I go back to my original position. The only reason it would ever make sense to LP is when you think the ratio of the price of the tokens in the pool won’t change, and when you think volume will be high. The utilitarian goal of the protocol providing a public good is not real. It does not exist. So, since we are not a managed fund, we should not deploy capital like one, and therefore, we should not acquire POL.
In conclusion, the bird, waffle, and any other model of using bonds to POL are all equally bad because POL is bad. We absolutely should sell SHD bonds to raise capital, but only after we have identified a need that generates a positive return on our investment. We absolutely should talk about how we bootstrap dex liquidity, but we should not sell bonds to do so.